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    <title>Series · WNTRDEV.BLOG</title>
    <link>https://blog.wntrdev.ca/series/</link>
    <description>Idealism under constraint. · Technology and geopolitics through a materialist lens.</description>
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    <language>en-us</language>
    <managingEditor>Sylvain Goyette</managingEditor>
    <webMaster>Sylvain Goyette</webMaster>
    <copyright>© 2026 Sylvain Goyette</copyright>
    <lastBuildDate>Thu, 14 May 2026 15:00:00 -0400</lastBuildDate>
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        <title>Iran 2026 Operational SITREP</title>
        <link>https://blog.wntrdev.ca/series/iran-2026/</link>
        <pubDate>Thu, 14 May 2026 15:00:00 -0400</pubDate><author>Sylvain Goyette</author>
        <guid>https://blog.wntrdev.ca/series/iran-2026/</guid>
        <description>A daily-cadence framework tracking US–Iran crisis bargaining since the post-12-Day-War ceasefire. Probe sweeps, fork probabilities, principal-agent gap. Each annex supersedes the prior cycle; the base synthesis is versioned.</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>A multi-layer constraint-architecture model of the 2026 US–Iran crisis. The framework treats limited kinetic exchange as type-revealing signal (Fearon–Slantchev), not monotonic escalation. Daily annexes track drift, validate or revise assumptions, and bind on probe sweeps published alongside each entry.</p>
<p>The base synthesis document is versioned; annexes supersede each other within the active framework version. A version rotation indicates a structural — not parametric — change to the model.</p>
<p><strong>How to read the day grid.</strong> Filled squares are days with a published annex. The orange square is the latest. Gaps indicate cycles where no annex was issued (typically because no structurally new finding emerged, or because the cycle was consolidated into the next day&rsquo;s entry). Each entry&rsquo;s delta chips reflect changes to fork probabilities vs. the prior cycle.</p>
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